A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility

While up to the late 1990s Japanese foreign exchange intervention was fully sterilized, Japanese monetary authorities left foreign exchange intervention unsterilized when Japan entered the liquidity trap in 1999. According to previous research on foreign exchange intervention, unsterilized intervention has a higher probability of success than sterilized intervention. Based on a GARCH framework and change point detection, we test for a structural break in the effectiveness of Japanese foreign exchange intervention. We find a changing impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on exchange rate volatility at the turn of the millennium when Japanese foreign exchange intervention started to remain unsterilized. JEL Classification: E58, F31, F33, G15Change Point Detection, Exchange rate volatility, foreign exchange intervention, GARCH, Japan, Structural Breaks

International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics : a dynamic panel analysis

In this paper we revisit medium- to long-run exchange rate determination, focusing on the role of international investment positions. To do so, we develop a new econometric framework accounting for conditional long-run homogeneity in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models. In particular, in our model the long-run relationship between effective exchange rates and domestic as well as weighted foreign prices is a homogeneous function of a country’s international investment position. We find rather strong support for purchasing power parity in environments of limited negative net foreign asset to GDP positions, but not outside such environments. We thus argue that the purchasing power parity hypothesis holds conditionally, but not unconditionally, and that international investment positions are an essential component to characterizing this conditionality. Finally, we adduce evidence that whether deterioration of a country’s net foreign asset to GDP position leads to a depreciation of that country’s effective exchange rate depends on its rate of inflation relative to the rate of inflation abroad as well as its exposure to global shocks. JEL Classification: F31, F37, C2

Exchange Arrangements and Currency Crises: What´s the matter with the exchange rate classification?

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether certain exchange rate arrangements are more prone to currency crises using a probit model. We define a currency crisis as a period characterised by the presence of intense foreign exchange market pressure. The definition is based on a foreign exchange market pressure index (MPI). If the value of the MPI is above a certain threshold, we define that period as a crisis state; otherwise the period is defined as a tranquil state. The definition of currency crises used in this paper focuses on discrete events.Keywords. Exchange rate regimes, currency crises, speculative attacks.JEL. F10, F31, F32

Excess returns on net foreign assets: the exorbitant privilege from a global perspective

This paper studies net foreign assets and the differential returns between gross foreign assets and liabilities for a sample of 49 countries between 1981 and 2007. It shows that investment income is more important than capital gains in imparting a drift to net foreign assets over the long-run, whereas the latter dominate short-term dynamics. Excess returns on net foreign assets of the United States are indeed exorbitant from a global perspective, only occasionally matched by other countries and mainly accounted for by positive valuation effects. The role of the United States as levered investor did not contribute to its exorbitant privilege. The econometric panel analysis also fails to find a robust positive relationship between leverage and excess returns. Notably, instead, real exchange rate depreciations increase excess returns through capital gains, proportionally to the relative foreign currency exposure. Excess yields on investment income are positively associated with the country risk rating. JEL Classification: F30, F31, F36excess returns, exorbitant privilege, leverage, net foreign assets

Foreign-currency bonds: currency choice and the role of uncovered and covered interest parity

Using count-data techniques, this paper studies the determinants of currency choice in the issuance of foreign-currency-denominated bonds. In particular, we investigate whether bond issuers choose their issuance currency in order to exploit the borrowing-cost savings associated with deviations from uncovered and covered interest parity. Our sample includes issuers from both the public sector and private sector. Our findings show that the choice of issuance currency is sensitive to deviations from uncovered interest parity but insensitive, in general, to deviations from covered interest parity. Furthermore, the influence of deviations from uncovered interest parity is stronger for financial issuers than for nonfinancial issuers. JEL Classification: F31, F36, G14, G15, G32bonds, currency choice, foreign exchange, interest-rate parity, international debt securities

Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries

This paper investigates whether the real oil price has an impact on the real exchange rates of three main oil-exporting countries: Norway, Russia and Saudi Arabia. We create our measure of the real effective exchange rates for Norway and Saudi Arabia (1980-2006) and for Russia (1995-2006), testing if real oil prices and productivity differentials against 15 OECD countries influence exchange rates. In the case of Russia it is possible to establish a positive long-run relationship between the real oil price and the real exchange rate. However, we find virtually no impact of the real oil price on the real exchange rates of Norway and Saudi Arabia. The diverse exchange rate regimes cannot help in explaining the different empirical results on the impact of oil prices across countries, which instead may be due to other policy responses, namely the accumulation of net foreign assets and their sterilisation, and specific institutional characteristics. JEL Classification: F31, C22oil exporting countries, Oil Price, purchasing power parity, real exchange rate, terms of trade

Can short-term foreign exchange volatility be predicted by the Global Hazard Index?

This paper examines the predictive properties of risk indicators for the foreign exchange markets. In particular it considers the predictive properties of historical volatilities and implied volatilities for movements in various bilateral exchange rates and compares them with the analogous properties of a composite indicator of risk, the Global Hazard Index (GHI). The GHI is a function of the implied volatility derived from currency options on the three major exchange rates, i.e. the euro-US dollar, the US dollar-yen and the euro-yen. For the empirical analysis this paper employs the concept of kernel volatility, which, loosely speaking, expresses the volatility of one variable conditional on the level of another. Simple regressions show that the levels of all the indicators on a particular day have a strong link to the variance of the nominal bilateral exchange rate on the next day. A strong overall influence is displayed by the GHI, especially for the currencies of small open economies. JEL Classification: F01, F31

Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures

In order to gain a better empirical understanding of the international financial implications of currency movements, we construct a database of international currency exposures for a large panel of countries over 1990-2004. We show that trade-weighted exchange rate indices are insufficient to understand the financial impact of currency movements and that our currency measures have high explanatory power for the valuation term in net foreign asset dynamics. Exchange rate valuation shocks are sizable, not quickly reversed, and may entail substantial wealth redistributions. Further, we show that many developing countries have substantially reduced their negative foreign currency positions over the last decade. (F31, F32, G15

Exchange arrangements and speculative attacks: Is there a link?

Abstract. The purpose of this article is to empirically investigate which exchange rate arrangements are associated with more speculative attacks in the foreign exchange market, a relationship which is estimated using a least squares dummy variables panel data model. Also, this article addresses the issue of measurement errors in the classification of exchange rate regimes by using four different classification schemes. Three de facto and one de jure classifications are used. Consequently, the sensitivity of these results to alternative exchange rate classifications is also tested. The empirical findings indicate clear support for fixed regimes particularly in emerging and developing countries.Keywords. Exchange rate regimes, speculative attacks, currency crises.JEL. F31, F33

FOREIGN EXCHANGE EXPECTATIONS IN INDONESIA: REGIME SWITCHING CHARTISTS AND FUNDAMENTALISTS APPROACH

In this research, the effect of central bank intervention within a heterogeneous expectation exchange rate model is investigated. The results are supporting both chartists and fundamentalist regimes. In the period investigated, chartist dominates in determining the exchange rate. While BI foreign exchange intervention can effectively push the market exchange-rate to its long-run fundamental equilibrium, however, Bank Indonesia’s effort to exert a stabilizing effect of foreign exchange interventions, the result does not show a success.  Keywords: exchange rates, foreign-exchange intervention, switching regression JEL Classification: F31, E52, C2